Longfellow Nokomis Real Estate Guide

Statistics- I love 'em!

Here's a quick update on the Longfellow and Nokomis Minneapolis Neighborhoods.

LONGFELLOW: 

In 2008 there were 606 listings.  In 2009 there were 538 listings, a drop of 11.2%.

In 2008 there were 351 closed sales. In 2009 there were 382 closed sales an increase of 8.8%.

In 2008 the median sales price was $188,500. In 2009 the median sales price was $171,500, a drop of 9%.

 

NOKOMIS:

In 2008 there were 1196 listings. In 2009 there were 1327 listings, an increase of 11%.

In 2008 there were 678 closed sales. In 2009 there were 840 closed sales, an increase of 23.9%.

In 2008 the median sales price was $208,000. In 2009 the median sales price was $189,950, a decrease of 8.7%.

For both Nokomis and Longfellow the percentage of the sale price received compared to the list price is above 95%, among the top in the entire city.

MY TWO CENTS:

While there are fewer listings on the market, there are more sales. We had a great 4th quarter in 2009, and I expect we'll see a great first quarter in 2010. The extended tax credit is a great motivator! 

 

Housing Shortage?

What?  That's crazy!  Haven't you heard the news?  It's a buyers market, the market is flooded with foreclosures, and banks aren't lending money.

Well maybe not.  First, banks are lending money.  I've yet to have one qualified buyer turned down for a loan.  Underwriting is taking a little longer, and sometimes they are raising issues the day before closing, causing a delay, but they are still making loans.

Second, listings are down.  Plus a big portion of the listings that are out there are in foreclosure and in poor condition.  Because of changes in the lending industry, first time buyers are almost exclusively buying with FHA loans.  FHA has certain requirements for the condition of the homes it will back a mortgage on.  Most of the foreclosures don't qualify.  So the fanciable inventory is down even further.

Third, who wants $8000?  Any guesses?  Give up?  The answer:  everyone.  This means more buyers.

This is creating a situation where the number of qualified buyers is out growing the number of attractive fanciable well priced homes.  We are seeing homes sell in a week, in a day, in a few hours.  They are all well priced homes, so don't confuse this to mean that your home is actually going up in value.  Buyers still have high expectations for what they can get for the money.  But your chances of selling may be better than you thought.

Stock Market vs. Real Estate Market

Heard any news about the real estate market lately?  It’s for real. Prices are lower. Homes are being foreclosed on. The bad mortgages are affecting everything in the financial markets. But are houses really the worst investment you could have made?

Since 2001, the average price of a single-family home in Nokomis has gone from $170,066 to $222,542. In Longfellow, the average price was $155,226 in 2001 and $192,772 today. And that number doesn’t consider that many foreclosed homes in rotten condition are skewing the numbers lower. In the same time, the Dow ended up right where it started. Simply, your investment did better in the housing market than it did in the stock market.

But that’s not the whole picture. How many memories have you made in your home? How many have you made in the stock market? Remember that time that you had your entire family over to your stock portfolio for Thanksgiving? Remember your first Christmas tree in your stock portfolio? Remember watching the snow fall out the window of your stock portfolio? No matter how cold it got, your stock portfolio always kept you warm at night.

You don’t have to invest in the stock market. But you do have to live somewhere. And in the long run, it’s better to own that home than to rent it. That doesn’t mean you should buy a home you can’t afford, or buy any home before you can afford it. But the dream of owning your own home is still a valid one. But if you treat it like the stock market and think that you can buy and sell at will as you try to build your fortune, your dream will return the favor just as reliably as the stock market. But put your dream of family and love into that home, and it rarely disappoints.

Longfellow and Nokomis Real Estate Market

Here are some statistics with a look at how Nokomis and Longfellow real estate are doing compared to this same time last year. I've also included statistics on Minneapolis as a whole so you have a reference point. In general, we have significantly fewer listings, fewer days on the market, and receive a greater percentage of the list price compared to much of the city. Our neighborhoods have faired okay during this downturn. With so many fewer homes on the market, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We'll see the Longfellow and Nokomis real estate market level out long before the suburbs do.

Longfellow
.	YTD 2007	YTD 2008	Change
New Listings	367	333	-9.20%
Closed Sales	158	139	-12%
Average Sales Price	230,221	196,486	-14.70%
% of List Price Received at Sale	96.10%	93.70%	-3.50%
Average Days on Market Until Sale	82	103	25.90%

Nokomis
.	YTD 2007	YTD 2008	Change
New Listings	900	716	-20.40%
Closed Sales	369	316	-14.40%
Average Sales Price	239,232	222,970	-6.80%
% of List Price Received at Sale	96.20%	94%	-2.20%
Average Days on Market Until Sale	97	121	24.40%

Minneapolis
.	YTD 2007	YTD 2008	Change
New Listings	7100	6194	-12.80%
Closed Sales	2248	2173	-3.30%
Average Sales Price	260,037	216,406	-16.80%
% of List Price Received at Sale	94.80%	90.40%	-4.60%
Average Days on Market Until Sale	127	148	16.60%

This information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed.  Statistics provided by the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors.

Foreclosures in our neighborhood

Map data ©2008 Tele Atlas - Terms of Use

Foreclosures in my Nokomis Longfellow neighborhood. Does this make anyone else angry? thanks to the Star Tribune

Other Blog articles:

Foreclosed Property for Sale--or is it? A letter from a real estate agent

Minneapolis Real Estate or Adventures in Wonderland?

Also:

Search Nokomis Minneapolis Homes for Sale

Search Longfellow Minneapolis Homes for Sale

Minneapolis Neighborhood Real Estate Statistics-As good as it gets

I'm so excited! The software I use to access MLS just made it possible to increase the accuracy of Minneapolis neighborhoods.  It used to be, we could only search by drawing perfect rectangles.  There are not many Minneapolis neighborhoods that are perfect rectangles, especially due to Minnehaha creek and the lakes. But now it's changed!

Now we can search within a certain number of miles of any given landmark or address (a radius search),

and most importantly, I can now draw out the exact shape of any neighborhood in Minneapolis using a polygon. 

Sounds like a pretty geeky thing for a real estate agent to get excited about, but here's what it means: 

• I can run more accurate reports for my clients and only send them what they want to look at,
• the Minneapolis Neighborhood statistics I run are more accurate,
• and I can serve my clients more quickly. 

Here are the statistics for the Minneapolis Nokomis community and it's neighborhoods. My participation in the MLS requires I tell you this information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

 

 

Morris Park and Minnehaha Real Estate

Last week I was contacted by a consulting company in Washington D.C. that has been commissioned by the Verterans Affair Administration to study real estate in the neighborhoods surrounding the country's VA Hospitals. They asked me if I'd be willing to share information about real estate in the Morris Park and Minnehaha neighborhoods. I'm not one to turn down an invitation to talk about real estate!  I'm meeting with them this afternoon--at a local coffee shop, of course.  I know those research guys love statistics so I wanted to make it worth the flight to Minneapolis. I prepared some statistics for them, and I thought I'd share them with you. The MLS does have limitations about how I'm able to run reports on individual neighborhoods. The MLS lets me draw a square map around the area for which I want data, but our neighborhoods aren't perfectly square.  So these numbers aren't perfect, but they are the ONLY reports available for individual neighborhoods.  They're meant to give you information to draw some conclusions from.

First, Active Listings. I compared Morris Park and Minnehaha with Nokomis as a whole so you had a frame of reference.

	Active Listings	Price Range	Avg. Price	Avg. Days on Market
Nokomis	401	$62,900-$814,000	$239,948	66.3
Morris Park	35	$84,900-$207,176	$207,176	51.3
Minnehaha	33	$119,900-$172,231	$224,761	88.5

Second, Pending Listings. These are homes that received a purchase agreement within the last 30 days. These haven't closed escrow yet, so the final sale price isn't known.

	Number of Pending Sales	Avg List Price	Avg Days on Market
Nokomis	39	$233,808	62.7
Morris Park	7	$213,214	85.1
Minnehaha	0	0	0

Finally, Sold Lisitngs. These are homes that closed escrow within the last 30 days.

	Number of Pending Sales	Avg List Price	Avg Days on Market
Nokomis	39	$233,808	62.7
Morris Park	7	$213,214	85.1
Minnehaha	0	0	0

Summary of Morris Park and Minnehaha Real Estate:

• Morris Park and Minnehaha are typically first time home buyer neighborhoods.A benefit in a slower market where first time home buyer homes still have the lowest days on the market.
• The advantage these neighborhoods have over the rest of Nokomis is that they are no-fly zones because of the VA Hospital (see the map below of Minneapolis Airport flight patterns).
• Great Freeway access. Even better once the crosstown/35 construction is completed.
• These neighborhoods are eligible for the City Living Grant Program
• The price points of most of the homes make the eligible for FHA and VA loan programs. This means a bigger pool of buyers for sellers, and more housing choices for first time buyers.
• Close to the Hiawatha light rail.
• Of the 125 MLS districts, Nokomis ranks 8th highest for total numbers of homes sold over the last month. Why? Charming homes, friendly neighborhoods, and great amenities.

I'll have no shortage of things to talk about with the D.C. guys this afternoon.

 

The VA Hospital is located on the corner of Hwy 62 and Hwy 55 on Veterans Drive. You'll find it on the lower right hand corner of this image of Minneapolis Airplane flight paths.

Comparison of Minneapolis and St. Paul Real Estate Market

If we compare Minneapolis and St. Paul real estate, which one seems to be doing better? If you live in Minneapolis or St. Paul, you know this is a fitting comparison. No matter what side of the river you live on, we all kiddingly say the other side is the "wrong" side.

I pulled these statistics from the Regional Multiple Listing Service this morning (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed). These reports list current number of homes on the market, number of homes that went "pending" (recieved a purchase agreement) in the last 30 days, and the number of homes that "expired" (contract expired without the home selling) in the last 30 days.

The Communities with the Top percentage of homes sold in Minneapolis in the last 30 days:

1st place-Longfellow
2nd place-Southwest
3rd place-Nokomis

The Communities with the Top Percentage of homes sold in St. Paul in the last 30 days:

1st place-Highland
2nd place - Mac/Groveland
3rd place - St. Anthony/Midway

The Communities who come out top overall between Minneapolis and St. Paul for number of homes sold in the last 30 days:

1st place-Highland
2nd place-Mac/Groveland
3rd place - Longfellow

Single Family Homes Minneapolis
	# of listings on the market	# sold in last 30 days	% Sold	# Expired	% Expired
Calhoun-Isles	300	14	4.66	20	6
Camden	>500	30	6	65	13
Central	15	2	13.33	2	13.33
Longfellow	125	25	20	10	8
Nokomis	345	51	14.79	28	8.11
North	421	32	7.6	42	10
Northeast	221	29	13.12	26	11.76
Phillips	33	4	12.12	2	12.12
Powderhorn	160	12	7.5	17	10.63
Southwest	344	57	16.58	18	5.23
Single Family Homes St. Paul
	# of listings on the market	# sold in last 30 days	% Sold	# Expired	% Expired
Phalen	291	11	3.78	30	10.3
Hillcrest/Hazel Park/Daytons Bluff	494	35	7.08	37	7.49
Southeast St. Paul	94	4	4.25	10	10.63
Riverview/Cherokee	91	9	9.89	9	9.89
Home Croft/W 7th	67	8	11.94	2	2.98
Crocus Hill	74	9	12.19	3	4.05
Downtown/Capital Heights	8	0	0	0	0
Central	300	12	4	36	12
Como	113	18	15.94	9	7.96
St.Anthony/Midway	96	15	15.625	10	10.41
Merriam Park	65	9	13.85	6	9.23
Mac/Grove	87	20	22.9	6	6.89
Highland	93	23	24.75	6	6.45

If there are other reports you'd like to see, just let me know!

LisaDunn@EdinaRealty.com
Real Estate Agent with Edina Realty, specializing in Nokomis and Longfellow real estate.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Real Estate Statistics

I have a beef with the media. Because of sensational reporting that is done to get ratings, I don't get to spend my time educating consumers on the real estate market, I spend time RE-educating them. I have to first un-do the harm done before I can give my clients the correct, most up to date information that is relevant to the community in which they live.

Here's an example: Both of these articles ran on June 25th, 2007.

CNN.com said: "Home sales slumped to a four-year low in May as prices slid further and the glut of homes on the market hit a 15-year high, a real estate group said Monday, noting buyers are being scared away by the weak housing market."

Realtytimes.com said:"Real estate is set for an upswing based on indicators such as home supply, interest rates and employment. Not only has it never been easier to find and afford that dream home than right now, but real estate remains one of the best long-term investment options."

Now, as a bright, internet savvy consumer which one of these stories are you going to believe? Frankly it doesn't matter which one you pick because neither one of them are giving you information that can help you be a savvy consumer if you are buying or selling a home in Minneapolis. Neither one of the above articles mentions the real estate market in Minnesota, Minneapolis, or Nokomis. Everything about real estate is local.

I'm not accusing CNN or RealtyTimes for misleading consumers with their interpretation of statistics. I am accusing the media-in general-of misleading consumers by i) doing an insufficient job of disclosing where they get their statistics, and ii) not including a disclaimer that their national, generalized statements about the real estate apply to my neighbors in Nokomis and Longfellow...or any other local market.  Simple matter is their report has a 50-50 chance of applying to ANY local market.   

(Dear Media, it's no fun when someone makes generalizations that may or may not be correct, hunh?)

Here are 3 tips to help you decipher whether you should listen to chicken little spewing statistics that prove the real estate sky is falling.

1) Know WHERE the statistics are coming from.  If it's from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)you probably want to be a little cautious. Don't get me wrong, NAR has the most comprehensive data available on the real estate market. But that's the problem. It's comprhensive and includes information from all over the country. NAR is not going to tell you how many days it takes a home in Nokomis to sell (86.4 as of today), or the median home price of homes that sold in Longfellow (236,000). If it's from our Regional Multiple Listing System, or from the Minnesota Association of Realtors, or the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors, you'll be getting information much more relevant to your situation.

2) As soon as you know where the information came from, ask another question on where the information came from. Above I told you it took 86.4 days for a home in Nokomis to sell. Here are some other questions for you to ask: Is that all single family homes or does it include townhomes and condominiums in Nokomis? Does that include price ranges from $55,000 to $2,000,000 or was the price range narrowed to come up with that number?  Is that for all 3 bedroom 2 bath homes, or does it include 1 bedroom 1 bath homes? 

Depending on how I run a report from the Regional Mulitple Listing Service, I can get very different information.

3) If the information is from a study that was done, find out who paid for the study. Then ask if that sponsor has any vested interest in the outcome of the study.  THEN you'll have your answer on how much credence to give to the study.

Submitted for review by my neighbors in Minneapolis
Lisa Dunn, Edina Realty REALTOR, and South Minneapolis Resident

Other Articles by Lisa

The biggest myth about selling your home
4 ways to increase your chance of a multiple offer

Buying a home in St. Paul? Don't overlook Nokomis and Longfellow.

I promise, the river doesn't bite. I drive over it at least twice a day between Minneapolis and St. Paul's Highland Park Edina Realty office. Why do I office out of St. Paul when I work in Minneapolis? Simple. It's the closest Edina Realty office to my home, and is, in my opinion, the best Edina Realty office to belong to!

I do not have a fear of the river-and I have found I am in the minority. So many of you don't want to cross the river. You're afraid of what you might find on the other side. You all complain about finding your way around on the other side, but I am of the opinion it goes much deeper. It's the fear of the unknown.

I'm hear to tell you there are treasures to be found on BOTH sides of the river. If you're considering buying a home in St. Paul, let me show you what your dollar will buy you in the Minneapolis Nokomis and Longfellow Neighborhoods, compared to the Highland Park and Macalaster Groveland neighborhoods of St. Paul.

If you were looking to buy a 3 bedroom, 1 bath home and a double garage you would see on average homes were listed for:

• Longfellow $230,971
• Nokomis $231,377
• Highland Park $261,567
• Mac/Groveland $282,267

If you're a smart consumer and want to stretch those valuable dollars as far as you can, you'd do well to explore what the Longfellow and Nokomis areas have to offer!

These Statistics are from the Regional Multiple Listing Service, are deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed.